Volatility vs. Price*

In recent years, the oil market has been characterised by rising, and at times, rapidly fluctuating price levels. In the last three months alone, Brent crude oil prices have fluctuated in a wide range from $125/bbl to $89/bbl. Higher volatility will certainly impact both consumers and producers. Oil exporting countries can be negatively affected by the impacts of high volatility in oil prices on fiscal revenues, investment and confidence in the economy. Higher volatility can have negative impacts on inflation and growth prospects in oil importing countries as well. As a response to observed higher prevailing volatility, for example, G20 leaders called for policy options to combat excessive price volatility in commodity markets in general, and in oil markets in particular. In order to reduce volatility in oil markets, the G20 experts group emphasised the importance of improving data transparency in both financial and physical markets as well as phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. They also urged the use of country-specific monetary and fiscal responses to support inclusive growth in order to mitigate the impacts of excessive price volatility.

Is WTI Weakness Purely Physical?*

Prices for crude oil benchmarks WTI and Brent have historically been related. In general WTI light sweet crude oil sold at a 5% premium to Brent crude oil between 1994 and 2010. However, this relationship between WTI and Brent crude oil totally collapsed in 2011. Brent crude oil sold at an average premium of $13/bbl in 1H11, or 13%, reaching $23/bbl in mid-June.