Fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly in crude oil prices, have been hotly debated in recent years. Some argue that underlying market fundamentals, especially the unexpectedly strong demand shock attributed to continued strong economic growth in Asia and other emerging economies, is the main reason for the resurgence of commodity prices and for the fluctuations in prices since 2004. Others argue that speculative activity in commodity derivatives markets is the main force behind surging commodity prices. They further claim that commodities have become a new asset class in investors’ portfolios, and prices are now more affected by macroeconomic news rather than by commodity-specific physical market conditions.
